The Giant. |
The
results are in. The giant of Africa, Nigeria, just completed its Federal
election for president. The former military dictator and current president,
Buhari, was re-elected. Or was he?
The 36 international and 120 domestic
observers, overseeing voting in 119,973 polling places in 8,809 electoral
wards, declared the election free and fair. But local civil society
groups, and the opposition party, say otherwise. They claim that the
election was anything but, and that it was militarized.
Why does it matter? Wouldn’t it just be
easier to let the election stand unchallenged? That is what many in the West
are arguing. Since it is impossible to know the extent of the “rigging”, they
say, for the sake of stability in an unstable world, why not just let the
election stand? This perspective fundamentally misunderstands both the role of
the military in a democracy as well as the importance of the rule of law.
First, the complaints.
1. Voter Disinformation.
It has been reported that in many of the locations, after being verified,
people voted for the House of Reps and/or Senate positions on the ballot,
thinking they were thus voting for the President and his party. Many
Nigerians are illiterate. The unused Presidential ballot papers were then
thumb-printed by unscrupulous electoral officials for Buhari’s party and
stuffed in ballot boxes. See one case here: https://www.facebook.com/ chidi.cali/videos/ 10219710379808999/ UzpfSTEyMDI5MDE0MTE6MTAyMTk3MT AzODAxMjkwMDc/
2. Systematic
Disenfranchisement. In many of the locations where Abubakar Atiku, Buhari’s
main challenger, is popular, there were patterns of voting materials arriving
late, and of card readers not working properly. Thus, many people in those
locations couldn’t vote.
3. Ballot Box
snatching. There are many reports of ballot box snatchings in Lagos,
Rivers and Akwa Ibom states. Hoodlums attacked some polling centers where
there was likely to be heavy voting for the opposition PDP and burned election
materials. Here is one of such cases in Lagos: https://www.facebook.com/ Gbyg124/videos/ 10155750910231582/ UzpfSTE1NjMyMjI5OTQ6MTAyMTg0MD kwNjYyNDg5ODQ/
4. Invalid Votes. Tens
of thousands of votes were invalidated for reasons that were never
specified. In Niger state, which heavily favoured opposition Atiku for
example, over 40,000 votes were rejected for no apparent reason.
5. Arrests and
Intimidations. Security agents were used to arrest and intimidate
voters. There are many reports in Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Kogi states where
the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) voters and party leaders
were arrested by security agents.
6. Generally, the
election was marred by many irregularities including multiple votings and over-votings.
There are reports of centers and wards reporting numbers that are
higher than the numbers on the voting registers.
Are there enough votes in
play (in an election that was peculiar inasmuch as there was a profound
increase in states like Borno, living under a state of emergency from the Boko
Haram violence and not incidentally a Buhari stronghold) that these examples
would matter to the overall result? That seems to me not the important question
to ask, though that is what some Western government are asking, and apparently
answering “no”. The major opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, believes
there are, and is preparing a court challenge to the election. He is
claiming that there was widespread voter suppression, assaults by the military
on citizens, and now a systematic crackdown on opposition leaders and their
families and staffs.
The court challenge will
eventually end up at the Supreme Court, whose chief justice, in an
unprecedented move, was summarily removed from his position by Buhari just
weeks before the election.
It is clear that Nigeria,
the largest democracy in Africa, is becoming increasingly militarized, that the
rule of law is in jeopardy. This matters not just for Nigerians, not just for
Africans, but for all of us. Nigeria will become, after India and China, the
third most populous country in the world in the next 25 years. While it has the
largest economy on the continent, it also has the largest percentage of
children out of school and the largest percentage of people in extreme poverty.
Unemployment is extraordinarily high and growing. Violence between herders and
farmers has increased significantly and ISIS has recently launched
sophisticated attacks on Nigerian military positions in a region where the Boko
Haram uprising has gone on for years. This is a critical moment in
Nigeria’s history: will democracy prevail, or will the country return to an
illegitimate autocracy under a failing regime, with all the unrest and
disruption that may provoke?
The Buhari regime has been,
by any measure, a failure. If Nigeria does not focus its resources on
basic human development and reduce violence - neither of which has happened
under the current leadership - then the possibility for widespread violence is
very real. In one of the most important countries in the world. The world
should be paying attention. And what was once called “the free world” should
certainly be supporting democracy in a world increasingly marked by
dictatorship.
Prof Margee Ensign is
President of Dickson College and former President American University of
Nigeria.
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