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| Muhammadu Buhari. |
In
the past few weeks, alarm bells have been ringing about the danger facing the
Nigerian economy. These alarm bells cannot be said to be frivolous or borne out
of partisan inclinations because they are coming from tested economists and
those who know about how well-run economies look like.
The most recent is by the Emir of Kano,
Lamido Sanusi Lamido, a renowned banker who rose to become Governor of the
Central Bank of Nigeria. Speaking at a Workshop on National Treasury in Abuja,
the traditional ruler and economist unequivocally said that the country was
heading towards bankruptcy if the Buhari administration failed to stop fuel and
electricity subsidy.
In the same vein, the respected Invest
Africa magazine has also drawn attention to Sanusi’s warning about
Nigeria’s imminent bankruptcy, even when some people said he had denied the
statement. Sanusi is not the type of man who denies statements credited to him.
Even if he denied it, it
should be noted that these concerns are no fluke as the high level of borrowing
and debt servicing embarked upon by the Buhari administration should be a
source of great worry about the future and health of the nations’ economy in
any place where a genuine democracy is in place. The fact that Buhari’s
pseudo-democratic government has conquered other organs of government which
should normally be independent as provided by the constitution, gives cause for
deep concern.
The way things stand now in Nigeria, a
silent fear has gripped majority of Nigerian intellectuals, technocrats and
political leaders that they might come under the hidden monitoring camera of
the regime if they dare say the truth about the Nigerian condition.
The economic condition of the majority
of Nigerians is currently very bad. Statistics from reputable foreign economic
monitoring bodies like the Austria-based World Poverty Clock has it that a
whopping 93.8 million Nigerians, as at June 2019, suffer from extreme poverty
and that about six Nigerians fall into damning poverty every six minutes. On
its own part, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts the country’s
unemployment rate at 23.1 per cent, under employment at 20.21 per cent and
youth unemployment at 55.4 per cent.
The above indices show that many
Nigerians notably the young and educated population is battling with poverty.
It was not long that Nigeria became the laughing stock of the World when in
2018, the World Bank and other multilateral institutions declared the country
as the World poverty capital thus sounding another alarm bell for Nigeria’s political
leaders.
It should be stated that these poverty
indices became prevalent under the administration of President Buhari who took
more than six months to put a cabinet in place after he emerged victorious in
the 2015 elections. President Buhari’s lack of foresight and passable knowledge
of economic issues, in the view of many experts and observers was the main
reason for the recession that hit Nigeria in 2016, the first time since
independence that the nation’s economy would be in such a mess. Granted that
the excesses of the Goodluck Jonathan administration contributed to the
economic difficulties the country faced after Buhari took over in 2015, the
poor policy choices and outright lack of choice under Buhari’s watch, made
economic recession and creeping poverty inevitable.
It was in this condition of recession
hangover, continuing corruption in the government and the continuing burden of
fuel subsidy that the 2019 polls came. Faced with enormous hardship under
Buhari, the majority of the Nigerian people reasoned that voting out the
lackluster administration of President Buhari was the way to put a stop to the
relentless march of poverty and social dislocation in the country.
The APC and Buhari claimed victory in
that election against the postulation of many analysts before the polls. The
management of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) whose
uncertain and indecisive public posture on issues arising from the collation of
results at the Presidential Election Tribunal also sided with Buhari and his
party’s’ claim. However the INEC’s shifty position on the Server issue has
convinced many Nigerians that much still needs to be straightened out about the
conduct of that election and the declaration of a winner. The final report of
European Union election monitors on the conduct and outcome and the nationwide
violence that attended the election proper, points to the fact that the
opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and its presidential candidate,
Atiku Abubakar have a strong and genuine case before the Judiciary. It is the
view of many Nigerians that Atiku Abubakar, who promised to make Nigeria work
again by providing millions of jobs and providing an enabling environment for
entrepreneurship to blossom won the 2019 polls and that the judiciary has a duty
to tell the world so!
The issue is that having used widespread
violence and the coercive instruments of the state to hijack the 2019 election
outcome, it is now a task for the nation’s judiciary, to show that it is
modern, fearless and independent to reverse the outcome of that election. The
judiciary owes this duty to Nigerians not only for the sake of restoring the
hope of Nigerians in democracy but rescuing the nation’s economy from the hands
of a man who clearly does not know how a modern economy should be run.
The poor economic history of Nigeria
under Buhari’s watch, characterized by growing poverty of the population, is
the result of poor leadership. President Buhari clearly lacks the knowledge,
temperament and leadership to guide a team that can make an economy flourish
and the people enjoy a good life.
It was for this reason that when Buhari
told Nigerians at the 2019 Democracy Day celebrations that his All Progressives
Party (APC) administration can raise 100 million Nigerians from poverty in a
period of ten years, those who have observed him since 2015, labelled the
statement as hollow. Most Nigerians hold the view that the Buhari persona, his
leadership style and his pervasive nepotism and policy of exclusion, means that
the president and his party, the APC can only descend people into poverty, not
to lift them.
Among the reasons why the growing
poverty in Nigeria persists, and might continue despite Buhari’s good
intentions are first, the poor and indecisive leadership of Buhari. Second, is
the nationwide security problem, violence and killings which has dislocated
many Nigerians. Third, is the problem which herdsmen pose to the farming
population in the country that has uprooted millions of farmers from their
farmlands mostly in the Northern part of the country. Food shortages are more
than likely all through Buhari’s four year tenure till 2023, if the judiciary
does not rescue the nation from his vice grip by declaring the rightful winner
of the 2019 elections. President Buhari has shown that he lacks the will to
deal with the problem of insecurity, more so when his military commanders blame
everyone except themselves for the security problems in the country including
Boko Haram insurgency in the North east region of the country. The insecurity
issue has emerged as a disincentive to domestic and foreign investment. Four,
the country’s huge population is another factor. With a population today, at
200 million and projected to rise to 400 million around 2050, the nation will
be in a messy situation if it does not solve its leadership, social,
infrastructural, educational and health delivery problems which are becoming
critical by the day. President Buhari is not the type of man to put in place
and implement a credible and effective population policy to help ensure that
the country can manage its population.
Part of the solution to the poverty
problem is the practice of true federalism under which the Federal Government,
the States and local government will be responsible partners with each level of
government working hard to eradicate poverty among the people under its care.
Unfortunately,
President Buhari does not believe in true Federalism compared to the opposition
candidate in the 2019 polls, Atiku Abubakar who is a disciple of Federalism and
who has taken pains to lay out the ways and means of its implementation to free
the creative and productive energies of the constituent parts of the country.
Finally, Nigeria according to
commentators and agencies who are conversant with the Nigerian economy, is in
dire straits. The onus is on all Nigerians with the influence to right the
wrongs to ensure that the nation is placed in credible hands.
Mahmoud Mustapha, a Public
Affairs Analyst wrote from Bauchi.
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